3rd June 2008
Food and Climate Change
In this section of our website we're hoping to provide you with some food for thought, facts and figures and inspiration to become active. There are lots of different ideas about what we need to do to stop catastrophic climate change. Here we present some of them in the hope to stimulate a productive debate about how a sustainable future might look.
Food & Water Security
As our own carbon-intensive diets and food supply chains impact on climate change, temperature rises are already affecting food production & water stress in many countries. Climate change is seen by many as being the greatest threat to food security and global poverty reduction. World grain prices have soared in the last year. Prices have been pushed up by the demand for land by the bio-fuel industry as corporations and governments look for a quick fix to satiate our demand for fuel. All this affects the price of food globally with devastating impacts on some communities, leading to hunger & displacement.The UN's World Food Programme (WFP) say the extraordinary increases in the global price of basic foods are caused by a "perfect storm" of factors: a rise in demand for animal feed for meat production in India and China, the use of more land and agricultural produce for biofuels, and climate change.
Record wheat prices and high prices for other crops such as wheat are catastrophic for people in poorer countries. Food riots have broken out in Morocco, Yemen, Mexico, Guinea, Mauritania, Senegal and Uzbekistan. Pakistan has reintroduced rationing for the first time in two decades. The UN WFP has a fixed budget and can no longer buy enough food for aid - they have warned that they need $0.5billion to meet the gap. Yet, high prices are forcing more people into food aid - for example, in Afghanistan, 2.55 million more people need food aid because they can no longer afford wheat, largely due to biofuels.
Biofuels
More and more grain and vegetable oil which should be used for food is being turned into biofuels for transport. At the same time, land used for producing food is converted to growing agrofuels. Throughout the global South, small farmers, indigenous peoples, forest communities and pastoralists are losing their land and livelihoods to agri-business companies growing crops for fuel.This means that cereals - corn, wheat, bread and pasta - and vegetable oil are becoming more expensive. It also makes meat and dairy more expensive, because grain is now turned into ethanol (biofuel), instead of feeding animals. High food prices are causing hardship in industrialised countries. In poorer countries, high food prices and the displacement of rural communities mean more people going hungry or starving. Turning food into biofuels is even worse for the climate than using petrol or diesel. This is because more land, including forests and grasslands, has to be cleared, releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide, and because more fertilisers also mean more climate change. Which in turn means scarcer, less robust food supply.
The EU is planning to turn much more wheat into ethanol - a 12-fold EU increase by 2016. The UK wheat surplus in 2007 was around 0.75 million tonnes. With planned current ethanol refinery expansion, we are headed for a 3 million tonnes deficit by 2010.
The Impacts of Current climate change on global communities
Water:
Around one third of the world's population live in countries experiencing moderate to high water stress. During the past century there has been increased rainfall in some parts of the world, but drying in others. This equates to increased flooding in some areas and droughts in others. In the past few decades, more intense droughts that last longer have been experienced in the semi-arid sub-tropics, and over wider areas than before. As a result of current climate change, the timing of supply is being altered in many rivers that are fed by glaciers and snow because of accelerated melting. Millions of people are dependent on such rivers for their water supply, particularly during the dry season. For example the area covered by glaciers in the Andes has been reduced by nearly a quarter in the last 30 years. Many large cities (such as La Paz/El Alto, Lima, Quito) and 40% of agriculture in Andean valleys rely to a considerable extent on these melt-water supplies.
Food:
Food production is highly sensitive to climate change because crop yields depend very much on temperature and rainfall patterns. Two thirds of the poorest people in the world live in rural areas and rely on agriculture for their livelihood. Around 800 million people are currently at risk of hunger (about 12% of the worlds population).In drier, tropical (lower latitude) regions crop productivity decreases even with small temperature rises. There is already evidence of reduced growing seasons in parts of Africa that are having detrimental effects on crops. In southern Africa the dry season is getting longer and rainfall more unpredictable. Overall, there are negative impacts recorded on smallholders, subsistence farmers and fishing communities, people ill-equipped to deal with and highly vulnerable to even the slightest change for the worst.Farmers in particular, in Latin America, Africa and Asia, are observing many common changes. These include the following: Greater extremes heat waves, longer and hotter droughts, more floods and intense, concentrated rainfall. This is increasing the numbers of both chronic, small-scale problems and major disasters. Changes to the seasons, generally shorter growing seasons. Greater uncertainty and unpredictability in weather patterns. In combination with other pressures on the environment, these changes are increasing water shortages, and hence hardship for women and girls, who are generally responsible for fetching water. In some places hotter temperatures have benefited farmers ability to grow fruit and vegetables. Others have lost out. Many farmers are changing their farming practices particularly trying to grow more drought-resistant crops or varieties but ability to change is limited by many factors, especially poverty.
The Impacts of a 1-2°C Rise in Temperature
Water
Hundreds of millions of people will be exposed to increased water stress as temperature climbs. In the Andes small glaciers will disappear completely with warming in the range of 0.51.5°C, threatening water supplies for around 50 million people. In Asia millions of lives will be affected with a predicted strengthening of the summer monsoon as temperatures rise, making it warmer and wetter. Monsoon rains play a crucial role for agriculture and industrial production throughout South and East Asia. In India these rains provide 7590% of annual rainfall. Water availability could therefore increase for around 2 billion people. But flood risk would probably increase as rainfalls in more intense bursts.
Food:
Crop productivity could still be increasing in mid to high latitudes. For example, northern parts of the US may become increasingly important winter wheat and potato producing areas. Higher yields of crops of fruit and vegetables may be common across Europe. But in other parts of the world, the story will be bleak. Maize is a staple crop for millions in developing countries, but lower yields are predicted right across South America (in every country except Chile and Ecuador).Building on current trends, most of Africa is expected to experience big declines in yields. Increasing numbers of people will inevitably be displaced by such profound impacts on water and food availability. Droughts, floods, sea-level rise, expanding deserts, food and health crises already contribute to large displacements of people. For example, in Nigeria desertification is forcing farmers and herdsmen to move, either into other areas where the land is habitable, or to the cities. Research by the Red Cross shows that more people are currently displaced by environmental disasters than war, and by 2010 the UN estimates that there could be as many as 50 million people escaping the effects of environmental deterioration. Some Small Island States may disappear altogether. Whether such movement is within countries (often to cities) or across borders, a host of challenges will follow. Conflict is a likely consequence, particularly where competition for resources is severe.
The Likely Impacts of a Rise in Temperature Above 2°C
Water
An estimated 15 billion people in South and East Asia may receive more water. A lot of the extra water will come during the wet season when it is likely to lead to more flooding. It will only be useful in the dry season if it is stored well. Much of East Africa is set to get wetter, with countries from Somalia to Mozambique experiencing more flooding from extreme rainfall. In the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of South America rainfall will continue to decline. A shocking potential 50% decrease is predicted in these areas if temperatures rise by 4°C. This spells water shortages for millions. One study predicts for a 23°C rise,14 billion people will be experiencing growing water shortages. The UK Hadley Centre warns that the proportion of land area experiencing extreme droughts at any one time could increase from around 3% today, to 8% by 2020 and to an incredible 30% by the end of the century. Drought will probably last all year round in most of southern Africa by the time 3°C is reached. And in southern Europe serious droughts could be occurring every 10 years instead of every 100. At 5°C large glaciers in the Himalayas may have disappeared, affecting a quarter of Chinas population and hundreds of millions in Asia. Some rivers will dry up completely. National food security will be jeopardized in countries like Pakistan with growing populations and high dependence on agriculture. Energy shortages will follow in countries like India that have a significant dependence on hydroelectric power.
Food:
Even in areas that have benefited from temperature rise previously, crop yields are likely to begin declining in the 23°C range. Rainfall reduction in many parts of Africa is likely to come in the middle of the growing season leading to massive declines in wheat, corn and rice production in he tropics. Increasingly severe droughts in some areas will make crop production impossible. Above 3°C, Chinas agriculture production is likely to be severely undermined and agriculture could become non-viable in several whole areas, for example in parts of southern Africa and parts of Australia. In parts of India, land temperatures could be too hot for crops to survive, even if rainfall increases as a result of a more intense monsoon. Once temperatures increase above 3°C, 250550 million additional people may be at risk of hunger, over half of them in Africa and western Asia. About one sixth of the population of the world rely on fish as their primary source of animal protein. Stocks will diminish as a result of acidification and the decline of coral reefs, denying tens of millions of people their livelihoods.
References
Most of this fact sheet was taken from an Oxfam report: Two degrees, one chance: the urgent need to curb global warming. www.oxfam.org.ukAlso see www.christianaid.org.uk : The Climate of poverty: facts, fears & hope
Biofuels Watch: www.biofuelwatch.org.uk
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